Saturday, November 21, 2009

Forex psychology

Forex (or trading) psychology is very interesting and important as well as difficult for study. Every single Forex trader, who is successful on the market knows, that the technical knowhow of the actual mechanics of trading the Forex (foreign currency exchange) market is not all you have to have, but recognizing the fact that you should be a winner - the main psychology of trading well known as Forex requires mental discipline.

While the main idea is to capture as many Pips (Price Interest Points) as possible, just to make your profits, ruling the heart in Forex trading is one of the thing that your head should focus on. Don’t get carried away by the thrill and excitement of the moment! Having a good strategy or well-built plan in place before you start trading is one of the main keys, as well as predetermining your exit point. You will have losing trades (everyForex trader does), within the Forex trading experience.

The art is in knowing when to let go of these, and not hang on in the hope that they will turn around and start making money. You don’t need to persist just to try and prove yourself, and keep lowering your stop-loss order in anticipation of an upturn in the market that may not come for some while. Is that right? The advance and smart forex traders also know that there will be another trade along soon. Knowing when to exit from profitable trades, too.

Forex trading experiencePlacing a stop-loss order is always a golden rule, along with every entry order, in order to prevent any loss from sinking too far. Trader, who doesn’t place a stop-loss order probably is going to lose a lot of money. Letting your winners ride and cutting your losers is acknowledged maxim in forex trading.

Most of all, gain an understanding of the charts, for they represent so much and are relatively easy to interpret and use. Forex trading develops strong trends, and although a more volatile market, predictability is one of the advantages of this market over others such as futures and stocks. Technical analysis is the most precise way of trading Forex, with charts showing the historical data, which over time has patterns repeating themselves, and can be used reliably for predicting future trends.

It is wise to open a demo account and to practice trading ‘on paper’ first before risking your money on the forex trading market. If you’re unsuccessful in this, it is unlikely that you will suddenly become an expert trader in a ‘live’ account, when using your own finances adds to the pressure to succeed. Never risk more money than you can afford to lose.

Financial INStruments

transaction is a two-day delivery transaction (except in the case of the Canadian dollar and the Mexican Nuevo Peso, which settle the next day), as opposed to the futures contracts, which are usually three months. This trade represents a “direct exchange” between two currencies, has the shortest time frame, involves cash rather than a contract; and interest is not included in the agreed-upon transaction. The data for this study come from the spot market. Spot transactions has the second largest turnover by volume after Swap transactions among all FX transactions in the Global FX market.FORWARD :One way to deal with the foreign exchange risk is to engage in a forward transaction. In this transaction, money does not actually change hands until some agreed upon future date. A buyer and seller agree on an exchange rate for any date in the future, and the transaction occurs on that date, regardless of what the market rates are then. The duration of the trade can be a one day, a few days, months or years. Usually the date is decided by both parties.FUTURE :Foreign currency futures are exchange traded forward transactions with standard contract sizes and maturity dates — for example, $1000 for next November at an agreed rate [4],[5]. Futures are standardized and are usually traded on an exchange created for this purpose.
Typically, ETFs try to replicate a stock market index such as the S&P 500 (e.g., SPY), but recently they are now replicating investments in the currency markets with the ETF increasing in value when the US Dollar weakens versus a specific currency, such as the Euro. Certain of these funds track the price movements of world currencies versus the US Dollar, and increase in value directly counter to the US Dollar, allowing for speculation in the US Dollar for US and US Dollar denominated investors and speculators.

Forex Today's latest News

BOE: Credit, Asset Prices Could Guide Macroprudential Rules

Sat, Nov 21 2009, 00:21 GMT

BOE: Credit, Asset Prices Could Guide Macroprudential Rules

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- International policymakers should explore in more depth whether credit growth and asset prices are reliable leading indicators of financial crises, and if they could be used to create a rule for the manipulation of macroprudential tools, the Bank of England said Saturday.

In a policy discussion paper, the central bank acknowledged that it wouldn't be easy to design such a rule, and said that even if one were later to be developed, a degree of discretion would still probably be necessary in the policy-making process.

Macroprudential tools aim to enhance the resilience of the financial system by discouraging the buildup of risk in upturns and reducing impediments to risk-taking in downturns, moderating the extremes in the economic cycle.

"Some studies have argued that credit growth and asset prices are useful leading indicators of banking system crises," the BOE said. "It is important that this work be pursued, as it may be possible to introduce a baseline rule-like element into any system."

It highlighted the complexities of establishing a rule, noting that if based on stock imbalances, it performed quite well in market upswings, but was slow to react in a downswing, and conversely, if based on credit and asset price growth rates, it was more sensitive to downturns but reacted slowly in upturns.

"In the near term, it seems unrealistic to think that it would be possible to settle on an easily comprehensible numerical target for macroprudential policy, equivalent to the inflation target in a monetary policy context. But that need not be fatal," the BOE said.

"Many public policy frameworks operate effectively with a qualitative objective, which here would be maintaining a stable supply of financial intermediation services to the real economy," it added.

Wall Street ends Friday in negative; Dollar with gains

Fri, Nov 20 2009, 22:14 GMT

The Dow Jones ended Friday with a loss of 0.14% but up for the week. Stocks started with a sharp decline but managed to move away from the lows. Gold rose and ended above 1,150 an ounce. Crude oil fell for the second day in a row.

The ecPulse.com analysis team affirms: “The U.S stocks end this week closing in red despite the current gains in health-care and consumer shares as fears are spread throughout overall markets concerning a global recovery while that huge U.S huge high-tech corporation; Dell Inc, posted its earnings that came in worse than forecasts, reporting EPS of $0.23 a share down from $0.27 reported in the prior quarter.”

The Dollar finished the day and the week with gains across the board except against the Yen. The fall in stocks with an increase in risk aversion helped Greenback recover.

Currencies tied to commodities posted important losses on Friday. AUD/USD fell to 0.9055 posting a fresh 2–week low. Despite rising for the week the main trend is still against the Dollar.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Currency TRading Forex

The foreign exchange market, often referred to as FOREX, is the market for different currencies, making it the largest financial market in the world with a daily average turnover of approximately $ 3 billion. It is a market which, in essence, is based on world trade. Goods and services are exchanged 24 hours a day around the world. As the transactions that take place all the time These transactions across national borders require payments in non-domestic currencies. That is where the forex market comes in.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

CMS Forex

Capital Market Services LLC (CMS) is one of the leading online foreign exchange (Forex) brokerage firms in the United States. We offer innovative solutions to retail and institutional clients. By partnering with Visual Trading platform gives us the most advanced Forex trading available on the web. Our innovative software solutions and competitive business conditions make us the best choice for the most demanding operators worldwide. Visual Trading platform is the only one offering live real-time graph, based on commerce while merchants to conduct expert analysis with a selection of the most sophisticated technical analysis tools.Our customer base stretches around the globe. Traders in North America, Europe and Asia have seen why CMS is the leading online distributor of Forex. While many other financial institutions have been falling in recent years, CMS has always been profitable and has been always growing! The time has never been better to enter this booming global industry. Join today CMS if you want to be part of a financial powerhouse with unlimited growth potential.Capital Market Services LLC is a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).CMS Forex was founded by professional Forex traders, currency traders and software developers, and as a result has been able to identify the needs of operators from the beginning. Since 1999, CMS Forex's mission has been to provide the most powerful technology combined with the currency trade execution quality, competitive services and reliable customer service. During the past seven years, CMS Forex has quickly become one of the leading online institutions of the world retail foreign exchange, providing security, software user-friendly Forex trading.CMS Forex is positioned as an industry leader in the Forex market and continues its growth as it strives to offer its customers the best business environment. Based in New York, CMS Forex and its subsidiaries now have offices in Boston, Tokyo, Bermuda, St. Petersburg and Shanghai. Bermuda Capital Market Services International and CMS Japan were created to strengthen the global reach and better serve our international clients.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Forex enterprise

Everyone knows that the Internet is the best place to earn money - and more intelligent. However, many have not grasped the idea or really spent the time and strength to use his right. Forex Company is a unique course that allows you to take this exciting opportunity source of gold on the Internet. It is totally quiet to dispel any claim of making money on the internet as a fad or worse still a trick. But Forex Enterprise is a really true that the plant and machinery damn well too!
The manufacturer of Forex Enterprise Mr. Nick Marks has put in his existence to explore and clear marketing genius behind this model. Your dreams can make an opportunity to pioneer multiple streams of income from sources such benefits. This field of online currency trading is unique in every way. What weighed heavily on my improvement is the shining examples I came to consider my contacts and colleagues who had brought to this organization. They are stubborn people for promotion and going ga-ga over Nick's exciting thinking means there must be something it.Yes, Forex Enterprise is a bold clean and supported by the existence of numerous studies and proven strategies that provide the large sample and playback compatibility right from day one. They aim to send more results, faster and constant. Now that is important. Because, no big deal if you make money in 15 to resume the merger plan, but 2 to 5 of time by the line of what is the state? You can see that Nick's currency now plant a source of long period and is then truly an attractive proposition.
Among the many things that came with this wonderful gift, Forex Enterprise offers nothing bet investment strategies. These propose the best strategies of the load so talk of putting the currency advantage, less risk! He keeps offering updates of new techniques and tested as a destination are not to stray even among one of the many streams of the benefits described in practice. All you have to do is to chart the progress of the step. It's so unadorned use and will amaze you how valuable it is.
Forex Enterprise also teaches you step on the cross to your website. Blindly result and see a field in the travel Web site almost immediately! The section on foreign exchange transactions is what attracted me in logic. Nick teaches you to sort the DXINONE - the most sought after of the structure of e-currency swap in the world. If you have to take an independent course in the routine isolation, ending payments of $ 100s! However, you get almost free!

CMS FOREX


Capital Market Services LLC (CMS) is one of the leading online foreign exchange (Forex) brokerage firms in the United States. We offer innovative solutions to retail and institutional clients. By partnering with Visual Trading platform gives us the most advanced Forex trading available on the web. Our innovative software solutions and competitive business conditions make us the best choice for the most demanding operators worldwide. Visual Trading platform is the only one offering live real-time graph, based on commerce while merchants to conduct expert analysis with a selection of the most sophisticated technical analysis tools.

Our customer base stretches around the globe. Traders in North America, Europe and Asia have seen why CMS is the leading online distributor of Forex. While many other financial institutions have been falling in recent years, CMS has always been profitable and has been always growing! The time has never been better to enter this booming global industry. Join today CMS if you want to be part of a financial powerhouse with unlimited growth potential.
CMS Forex strives to serve both retail and institutional segment of the Forex community. Their commitment to providing innovative technology from foreign exchange trading, fair dealing practices and excellent customer service sets CMS Forex as a major force that traders look for advanced Forex chart up to date Forex news, Forex education and information.

CMS Forex Partners in New York, St. Petersburg, Shanghai and are dedicated to go the extra mile to satisfy customer needs, by creating and constantly improving on the already sophisticated and easy trading software, VT Trader ™. These attributes, plus many others, demonstrate that CMS Forex has built from the base of a service that really stands on its own.

Forex Demo Account



If you are a novice in foreign exchange industry, and have no idea what is happening around them, better go and find information online. There is plenty of information obtained, and it is best that you have knowledge of the fundamentals. There are websites that offer commercial electronic books to its customers only. Do you want your bargaining skill developed? Do not worry! Just find a site that offers to create an online demo account Forex.
It will give you practice in the trade and you will find very useful. There are also forex trading software that provides practice in trade. Account is like having a real live demonstration of the currency and is in the market today. Better find commercial software that can run on any computer.
When you have your demo account of the currency, and portability of the software is there, if you are traveling on the road or just stay home, you will have access to everything that is happening in the currency markets. You will always be updated with current news of negotiation. Forex demo account would be the way online forex trading system.

How To Earn In Forex



Forex, where the commodity that is traded is the currency, not stocks and shares, trading is a market that gives its investors, the performance in the form of the relative value of a currency changes by one. Forex is therefore always traded in currency pairs with the major currency pairs are Euro / dollar (EUR / USD) and the U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD / JPY), to name a few. And it is concurrent with the purchase and sale of currencies which the operator expects a profit in the fluctuations of the favorable exchange rate. Exchange rates are always fluctuating up and down, in seconds and all the art of negotiation lies in the perfection predict the trend of variation between the two currencies. But how to make money in such a competitive market and constant trade?
Well, here's an example to illustrate how ... Assuming that the current supply / sale price for EUR / USD is going by the rate of 1.5027/30, giving you the option to buy 1 euro of $ 1.5030 U.S. or sell 1 euro for 1.5027 U.S. dollars. Now, if you feel that the euro is undervalued against the U.S. dollar, would choose to buy euros, the sale of their dollars at once. So buy 100,000 euros by paying 150,300 U.S. dollars. You can then start analyzing the market, pending the exchange rates go up. You can also opt for Spot Forex Trading because of its benefits

Currency Trading - Forex



The foreign exchange market, often referred to as FOREX, is the market for different currencies, making it the largest financial market in the world with a daily average turnover of approximately $ 3 billion. It is a market which, in essence, is based on world trade. Goods and services are exchanged 24 hours a day around the world. As the transactions that take place all the time These transactions across national borders require payments in non-domestic currencies. That is where the forex market comes in.

DAILY TRADING - THERE IS NO SPOON

DAILY TRADING - THERE IS NO SPOON

Some people are asking me about the secret of daily trading. The answer is there is no secret. It is there for everyone to see but the question is, can you accept what you see.

The next indicator I use is CCI. CCI alone is a bit of a headache. So I smooth it out with MA. With the MA, I can see the direction of trade clearly. People say MA is a lagging indicator but I dont want to be early going to a party. I like to enter when the party already started.

The last advice is, there is no such thing as holly grail. You just cannot win all the time. The best that we can do is try to win as much as possible and lose a little as possible. In the long run, it would be profitable enough to stay trading. Otherwise you need to find another business to run

8 Basic Tips on choosing Best Forex Broker

There are some basic notices that you should consider when you want choosing online forex broker.
#1- Spread Amount
The spread, which is calculated in pips, is the difference between how much you can buy or sell a currency at a specific point in time.
Forex currencies are not traded through a central exchange market, so the spread can be different depending on the forex broker you use. Some online forex brokers have variable spread; some of them have two spread amounts that depend to day and night.

Some of them their spread depends to the position of market. When market is quiet the spread is small and when market is busy the spread is high. I prefer forex brokers that have fixed spread, because over the long term fixed can be safer.
#2- Execution
- How fast is the broker’s order execution?
- Do they offer automatic execution?
- How much can you trade before having to request a quote?
- Do they trade against their clients?
The best way to find out is to open a forex demo account and give them a test drive.

Leverage Options
Leverage is expressed as a ratio between the total capital that is available to be traded and your actual capital. For example, when you have a ratio of 100:1, your forex broker will lend you $100 for every $1 of actual capital you have. Leverage is a necessity in forex trading because the price deviations in the currencies are set at fractions of a cent.
Before choosing an online forex broker notice that what is their leverage. Many brokerages offer a flexible margin that allows you to choose the leverage that’s right for you.
#4- Account Types
Notice the forex broker you choose has managed forex trading mini accounts or not. Mini account is designed for those new to online currency trading and those with limited investment capital. There is a smaller deposit required to start trade of just $300 or less.
#5- Trading Platform
Good trading software will show live prices that you can actually trade at, not just indicative quotes. It will offer Limit and Stop orders, and ideally will let you attach these to your entry order. One-Cancels-Other orders are another useful feature - they mean you can set up your trade and then leave the software to get on with it.

#6- Dealing tools and value-added services
Find out online forex broker that offers the best resources and information to help you make the smartest trading decisions. A good company should offer real-time charts, technical analysis tools, real-time news and data, and software or website support. Be weary of any company that refuses to share information or trial versions before opening up an account. You will want to try out their system before you choose to invest money in it.
#7- Support
Forex is a 24 hour market, so your online forex broker should offer 24 hour support. You should also check if you can close positions over the phone - essential in case your PC or internet connection crash at a critical moment. You could contact to their Internet help desks to see how quickly they respond to enquiries.
#8- Get Referrals
Ask around and read forex forums to find out which forex brokers other people use and why they selected a specific broker.

Friday, September 25, 2009

FOREX MARGIN TRADING

Forex mForex margin tradingargin trading is playing main role in forex trading study and learning. As a beginning we should know what is margin?

When a private investor who purchases, let’s say: GBP/USD have to put down a deposit known as ”margin”, this is required rule. Also the sale of one currency involves the purchase of another, the seller of GBP/USD will have bought a volume of USD and will also have to put down margin.

What percent could it be? The normal margin requirement is between 1% and 5% of the underlying value of the trade. Here is an example: If your margin requirement is 2.5% of the 5,000 USD in your margin account, you can open a positions worth 200,000 USD. You may be asked to provide additional funds, when the funds in your margin account drop below the minimum required to support your open positions. This is well known as a ”margin call”.
Margin is really required equity, when it comes to collateralize a position.

The meaning of trading on margin is the ability to buy and sell assets, which represent more value than the capital in your account. Just to give an example: a margin of 2.0% means that you can trade up to $500,000 even though you only have $10,000 in your account. Forex trading is usually done with relatively little margin since currency exchange rate fluctuations tend to be less than one or two percent on any given day.

exchange marketHere it is: $10,000 is 2.0% of $500.000, or put it another way: 50 times $10,000 is $500,000, because in terms of leverage this corresponds to 50:1. You can make profits very quickly thanks to the possibility of using this much leverage, but there is also a greater risk of incurring large losses and even being completely wiped out. Maximize your leveraging it’s inadvisable, because the risk can be very high. Attracting investors to the FOREX market who wish to risk less than one million dollars at any time (a standard lot for trading on the exchange market), it employs what is referred to as a margin trade.

Forex Margin trading” was created in 1985 for purposes of potentially advantageous trades of currency. The process involves a cash deposit, which is usually much smaller as an amount than the commodity contract or underlying value of the currency, that is required because of the affecting the trade. The main distinction the financial marketsfrom FOREX trading system, is s that foreign currency purchase-sale operations can be processed and made without having a set required sum to perform trading operations. The client needs to invest only a small start up amount, that is referred to as a ”margin” in order to manage a purchase.

financial marketsThe so-called ”shoulder” or leverage gives the client an opportunity to make deals in volumes that are 50-100 times greater the start up amount. It is granted by a credit institution bank or bank, where he deposits a guaranteed margin. Just a simple example: by depositing a guaranteed amount of $100,000 in a broker company or bank, the individual can make financial operations in amounts of 5 to 10’s of millions of dollars. Any kind of modest gain on the FOREX Market is considered to be of significant size. If we think of another advantage of FOREX, this could be the profit derived from any direction of price changing, regardless of the particular currency involved.

Here are some really important terms connected with the margin:

The margin ( Initial ) is paid by both forex traders: the seller and buyer, representing the losses on that contract, as determined by historical price changes, that is not likely to be exceeded on a usual day’s forex trading.

Because a series of adverse price changes may exhaust the initial margin, a further margin, usually called variation or maintenance margin, is required by the forex exchange. Calculated by the futures contract, i.e. agreeing a price at the end of each single day, also called the “settlement” or mark-to-market price of the contract.

Forex traderSpeculators use the term - margin-equity ratio, which is the amount of their trading capital, used to hold it as margin at any particular time. Forex trader would rarely hold 100% of their capital as margin, that is also unadvisedly strategy. The options to lose their entire capital at some point could be high. A conservative trader might hold a margin-equity ratio of 15%, while a more aggressive trader might hold 40%. By contrast, if the margin-equity ratio is so low as to make the trader’s capital equal to the value of the futures contract itself, then they would not profit from the inherent leverage implicit in futures trading.. Return on margin (ROM) is often used to judge performance because it represents the gain or loss compared to the exchange’s perceived risk as reflected in required margin. ROM may be calculated (realized return) / (initial margin). The Annualized ROM is equal to (ROM+1)(year/trade_duration)-1. For example if a trader earns 10% on margin in two months, that would be about 77% annualized.

Forex Trading Strategy

All Forex trading strategies begin with analysis such as technical and fundamental. Here are some explains why this analysis is really important for building a solid forex trading strategy:

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental AnalysisWe mainly do fundamental analysis to get better information of a long-term trends in the currency market. There are a number of factors that determine the value of a country’s currency. In a fundamental analysis, the primary issues, that are measured are the economic, overall political and social climates of a specific country. It can be difficult measure how these issues affect one another. Before forex trading, every single trader should be aware of the affects of political events, central bank news, non-farm payrolls, consumer price index, imports, exports etc. on the value of currency.

Technical Analysis

Technical AnalysisCharts and graphs are the main stuff, which is produced by the technical analysis and scrutinizes past data on volume and price. “Fibonacci retracement” is one of the latest buzzwords in this approach to currency trading analysis. Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician, lived in 12th century, who contributed to a modern forex trading strategy consists of his retracements, fans and arcs. The basic - the lines in these mathematical studies are currently used to anticipate a trend change as prices near the lines created by these arcs, fans, and retracements. So Candlestick Formations, Fibonacci Sequence, Financial Breakouts and Trend Lines are some of the more popular forms of technical analysis used in forex.

Successful forex trader will develop a personal forex trading strategy, which will make it perfect with the time. Some traders will use broad spectrum analysis as a means of determining their trades, while others focus a specific study or calculation. If you want to make long-term projections and also determine entry and exit points, most of the experts suggest that you try using a combination of both fundamental and technical analysis. But as we know the final decision is yours, and in this point - trading is a discipline that requires preparation and hard work. You should also know that your overall personal forex trading strategy has to include three vital ingredients:

1. Sound money management.
2. The currency pair you decide to trade.
3. What technical indicators you use for entry/exit plans.

Strategy 1 - Simple Moving Average

Profitable and/or successful trading is mostly described as optimizing your risk with respect to your reward, or upside. Any trading strategy should have a disciplined method of limiting risk while making the most out of favorable market moves. We will show you one decision making model which uses a Simple Moving Average (”SMA”) technical study, based on a 12-period SMA, where each period is 15 minutes. It is one example of a trading decision making strategy, and we encourage any trader to research other strategies as much as possible.

Here we will use a simple algorithm: it will be taken as a signal to buy at the market, when the price of the currency crosses above the 12-period SMA. When the currency price crosses below the 12-period SMA, it will be a signal to “Stop and Reverse” (”SAR”). In other words, a long position will be liquidated and a short position will be established, both with market orders.

Simple Moving Average

Thus this system will keep the traders “always in” the market - he will always have either a long or short position after the first signal. In the chart below, the white line represents the price of USDJPY, the purple line represents the 12-period SMA of USDJPY, and the red line indicates where USDJPY crosses above the SMA, generating a buy signal at approximately 129.90:

The given method is a simple example of technical analysis applied to trading. Many strategies used by professional traders make use of moving averages along with other indicators or “filters”. Note that the moving average method has an element of risk control built in: a long position will be stopped out fairly quickly in a falling market because the price will drop below the SMA, generating a stop-and-reverse signal. The same holds true for a sell signal in a rising market. Note that the SMA is generated automatically by GCI’s integrated charting application.

Forex versus Stocks

Forex versus Stocks Advantages
AdvantageForexStocks
24-hour TradingYESNO
Commission Free TradingYESNO
Instant Execution of Market OrdersYESNO
Short-Selling without an UptickYESNO

24-Hour Market

The Forex market is a seamless 24-hour market. Most brokers are open from Sunday at 2PM EST until Friday at 4 PM EST with customer service available 24/7. With the ability to trade during the U.S., Asian, and European market hours, you can customize your own trading schedule.

Commission Free Trading

Most Forex brokers charge no commission or additional transactions fees to trade currencies online or over the phone. Combined with the tight, consistent, and fully transparent spread, Forex trading costs are lower than those of any other market. The brokers are compensated for theirs services through the bid/ask prices.

Instantaneous Execution of Market Orders

Your trades are instantly executed under normal market conditions. You also have price certainty on every market order under normal market conditions. What you click is the price you get. You’re able to execute directly off real-time streaming prices (Yeeeaah!). There's no discrepancy between the displayed price shown on the platform and the execution price to enter your trade. Keep in mind that most brokers only guarantee stop, limit, and entry orders are only guaranteed under normal market conditions. Fills are instantaneous most of the time, but under extraordinarily volatile market conditions order execution may experience delays.

Short-Selling without an Uptick

Unlike the equity market, there is no restriction on short selling in the currency market. Trading opportunities exist in the currency market regardless of whether a trader is long or short, or which way the market is moving. Since currency trading always involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias to the market. So you always have equal access to trade in a rising or falling market.

forex versus stocks

Look at Mr. Forex. He's so confident and sexy. Mr. Stocks has no chance!

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

SPECULATION IN FOREX

A look into speculation. Something I wrote some time ago [with references :)].

Price movements in financial markets may appear to be based solely on the statistical calculations of fundamental metrics; however, prices are also influenced by an entire culture of speculation (Miyazaki, 2007). Speculators, who are typically short-term investors, trade on the anticipation of making profits due to incorrectly priced assets or securities (Malpezzi & Wachter, 2006). Economic theory states that speculation increases liquidity and price discovery in the market, and consequently, increases economic efficiency. For example, if speculators believe that the market is too optimistic about a firm’s future earnings, they will short the firm’s stock. This collective behavior will drive down the stock price and reflect the correct information about the firm, thus creating a more informationally efficient market (Mengle, 2007). Economic principles also state that only investors with a comparative advantage in speculating will stay in the market because the competent speculators will impose losses on the incompetent ones and eventually weed them out (Bradfield, 2006).

This paper will aim to identify if there are any negative effects of speculation and how it plays a role in currency markets. We will first look at how speculating has proved to be unprofitable in currency markets. Followed by how speculation, in contrast to economic theory, may lead to negative outcomes such as trend following that decrease informational and economic efficiency. We will also analyze whether currency crises are caused by macroeconomic variables or speculative attacks. Lastly, we will look at how speculation may negatively affect an entity’s decision to undertake projects and whether big market players affect the market.

It is important to analyze the effects of speculation, especially on currency markets, because it has important implications for the design of the international financial architecture (Goh & Groenewold, 2000). For example, if price movements in currency markets are due to inconsistencies between fundamental and policy settings, the markets will be just be doing its job. However, if wide swings in currency prices are due to speculative attacks, even when the fundamentals are sound, it follows that policy makers will need to consider measures that prevent the free movement of speculative capital (Goh et al., 2000).

While speculators account for a large share of total market activity, several studies have shown that speculators generally realize net trading losses (Mahani and Bernhardt, 2007). Some researchers suggest that large-scale speculation still manifests itself because of risk loving and utility from gambling. However, others have found that losses are too large to be reconciled solely by risk seeking, and that traders mistakenly believe they can forecast prices and that they tend to remember profits, but forget losses (Mahani et al., 2007). Therefore, it seems that speculators do not seem to trade fully on additional information acquired because of a comparative advantage, but also from overconfidence and an illusion that they can time the market. This conclusion suggests that speculation may distort the prices of securities and consequently reduce their informational value.

Speculative trading losses have also been documented in the currency markets. Even though banks make large revenues and profits in the currency market through their customer business and by being market makers, a study done by Mende and Menkhoff (2006) analyzed the profitability of a mid-sized German bank in speculating currency and found that speculative trades failed to become systematically profitable after a period of thirty minutes. Considering the competitive nature of the currency market, it is plausible to doubt that any player could systematically make money by speculating. Therefore, two conclusions may be deduced from these results. First, it seems that a speculator’s marginal benefit of acquiring additional information on a currency is less than his or her marginal cost and, hence, could be abandoned. It may also be that speculators’ models cannot properly predict short-term price movements in the currency markets. Succinctly, if speculation generates any negative behaviors, investors should not have a strong financial incentive to oppose partial restrictions on the movements of speculative capital.


Read more: http://www.myinvestmentanalysis.com/speculation-and-forex-speculation/#ixzz0RBj9tQOK

World Currency Market...How you could Make use of it

Trading takes place in New York, Frankfurt, London, Tokyo and Sydney at all hours. Forex trading or foreign exchange currency trading involves selling one currency to buy another. Some of the most commonly traded currency pairs are USD-CHF (US Dollar / Swiss Franc), EUR-USD (Euro / US Dollar), USD-JPY (US Dollar / Japan Yen), and GBP-USD (British Pound / US Dollar).

The main Trading centers of the forex currency market are New York, London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and Sydney. They are located in different time zones. So, this makes the forex market trade 24 hours a day.

There is no central exchange or location where the trading is conducted, and most trades are executed between two interested parties who use the phone or other electronic means to communicate. The main market for forex currency trading is the inter-bank market, in which banks, insurance companies, corporations and other large institutions trade to manage the risks associated with fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.


Currency Trading and the Benefits of Fx Trading


Currency trading is no longer reserved for large institutions. Anyone can learn how to trade forex, and do it from anywhere. Individuals can trade in the forex market from their homes by means of a high speed Internet connection.

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Exchange Rate Equilibrium Stories using the RoR Diagram

Any equilibrium in economics has an associated behavioral story to explain the forces that will move the endogenous variable to the equilibrium value. In the foreign exchange (FOREX) model, the endogenous variable is the exchange rate. This is the variable that is determined as a solution in the model and will change to achieve the equilibrium. Variables that do not change in the adjustment to the equilibrium are the exogenous variables. In this model, the exogenous variables are Ee$/£, i$, and i£ . Changes in the exogenous variables are necessary to cause an adjustment to a new equilibrium. However, in telling an equilibrium story it is typical to simply assume that the endogenous variable is not at the equilibrium (for some unstated reason), and then to explain how and why the variable will adjust to the equilibrium value.

Exchange Rate too High

Suppose, for some unspecified reason, the exchange rate is currently at E"$/£ as shown in the adjoining diagram. The equilibrium exchange rate is at E'$/£ since at this rate, rates of return are equal and interest rate parity (IRP) is satisfied. Thus, at E"$/£ the exchange rate is too high. Since the exchange rate, as written, is the value of the pound, we can also say that the pound value is too high relative to the dollar to satisfy IRP.

With the exchange rate at E"$/£, the rate of return on the dollar, RoR$, is given by the value A along the horizontal axis. This will be the value of the US interest rate. The rate of return on the pound, RoR£ is given by the value B, however. This means that RoR£ < style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">$ and IRP does not hold. Under this circumstance, higher returns on deposits in the US will motivate investors to invest fund in the US rather than Britain. This will raise the supply of £s on the FOREX as British investors seek the higher average return on US assets. It will also lower the demand for British £s by US investors who decide to invest at home rather than abroad. Both changes in the FOREX market will lower the value of the pound and raise the US $ value, reflected as a reduction in E$/£.

In more straightforward language, when the rate of return on $ deposits is higher than on British deposits, investors will increase demand for the higher RoR currency and reduce demand for the other. The change in demand on the FOREX raises the value of the currency whose RoR was initially higher (the US dollar in this case) and lowers the other currency value (the British pound).

As the exchange rate falls from E"$/£ to E'$/£, RoR£ begins to rise up, from B to A. This occurs because RoR£ is negatively related to changes in the exchange rate as described in 20-7. Once the exchange rate falls to E'$/£, RoR£ will become equal to RoR$ at A and IRP will hold. At this point there are no further pressures in the FOREX for the exchange rate to change, hence the FOREX is in equilibrium at E'$/£.

Exchange Rate too Low

If the exchange rate is lower than the equilibrium rate, for some unspecified reason, the then adjustment will proceed in the opposite direction. At any exchange rate below E'$/£ in the diagram, RoR£ > RoR$. This condition will inspire investors to move their funds to Britain with the higher rate of return. The subsequent increase in the demand for pounds will raise the value of the pound on the FOREX and E$/£ will rise (consequently the dollar value falls). The exchange rate will continue to rise, and the rate of return on pounds will fall, until RoR£ = RoR$ (IRP holds again) at E'$/£.

The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in afloating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions viz; purchasing power parity,interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model (see exchange rate). This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
(c) Asset market model (see exchange rate) views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”
None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.
Inflation levels and trends
Typically a currency will lose value if there is a high level ofinflation in the country or if inflation levels are perceived to be rising [. This is because inflation erodes purchasing power, thus demand, for that particular currency. However, a currency may sometimes strengthen when inflation rises because of expectations that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates to combat rising inflation.
Economic growth and health
Reports such as GDP, employment levels, retail sales, capacity utilization and others, detail the levels of a country's economic growth and health. Generally, the more healthy and robust a country's economy, the better its currency will perform, and the more demand for it there will be.
Market psychology
Market psychology and trader perceptions influence the foreign exchange market in a variety of ways:
Flights to quality
Unsettling international events can lead to a "flight to quality," with investors seeking a "safe haven". There will be a greater demand, thus a higher price, for currencies perceived as stronger over their relatively weaker counterparts. The Swiss franc has been a traditional safe haven during times of political or economic uncertainty.[11]
Economic numbers
While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic policy, some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like effect: the number itself becomes important to market psychology and may have an immediate impact on short-term market moves. "What to watch" can change over time. In recent years, for example, money supply, employment, trade balance figures and inflation numbers have all taken turns in the spotlight.
Technical trading considerations
As in other markets, the accumulated price movements in a currency pair such as EUR/USD can form apparent patterns that traders may attempt to use. Many traders study price charts in order to identify such patterns